Market Update April 2026
.png "Market Update April 2026")
In December, we wrote that 2025 had been a turbulent year. However, this pales in comparison to the first months of 2026. It started with the unexpectedly high CBAM levy and the uncertainties surrounding it, followed by the war in Iran, which has also had a direct and significant impact on the fasteners market.
Raw material prices continue to rise, but uncertainty is increasing
Prices for raw materials used in our products showed a clear upward trend in the first quarter of 2026. Both steel and stainless steel have increased significantly in price.
This development aligns with earlier signals from the market, where rising production costs and geopolitical tensions play an important role. Suppliers indicate that raw material prices remain under pressure, supporting the expectation that prices may continue to rise in the short term.
At the same time, uncertainty is increasing. Various parties indicate that it is currently difficult to predict a clear price direction. The market is volatile and strongly influenced by external factors. Globally, demand for fasteners remains relatively low.
CBAM leads to structural cost increases
As of January 1, 2026, the CBAM regulation has come into force. This has direct and far-reaching consequences for fasteners produced outside the EU.
The level of the CBAM surcharge is determined by multiple factors, a significant part of which has not yet been definitively established. In practice, this means that we are currently not allowed to calculate using the actual CO₂ values from the production chain.
Only once the entire chain, from blast furnace to wire rod producer, has been independently verified, can these actual values be used. As these verifications are unlikely to be completed in 2026, we are required to use the EU’s default values. In practice, these are higher than the actual emissions.
On April 7, 2026, the European Commission published an official CBAM price for the first time. For the first quarter of 2026, this amounts to €75.36 per ton of CO₂.
In 2026, this price is set quarterly based on the average EU ETS prices. From 2027 onwards, these prices will be published weekly, making the final costs more dynamic.
Although this first price provides more clarity, many uncertainties remain.
Not every product group is affected equally. The final surcharge depends on the country of origin and the HS code of the product and is calculated per kilogram. As a result, higher-quality products, such as stainless steel and higher strength classes, are relatively less affected.
Geopolitics remains a key factor
The situation in the Middle East continues to impact the market, particularly through energy and transport costs.
We are seeing, among other things:
• increased energy prices
• rising production costs in Asia
• growing pressure on the availability of certain raw materials
As a result, transport costs are once again under pressure. Ocean freight rates have recently increased and remain sensitive to further escalation of the conflict.
Outlook
The combination of rising costs, geopolitical uncertainty, and regulatory measures is creating a complex market situation. In the short term, the upward trend in prices continues, and we are seeing lead times increase.
The direction of the market will largely be determined by geopolitical developments and the further implementation of CBAM in Europe. At present, it is not possible to make any reliable predictions. As soon as more information becomes available, we will share it.