Market update December 2025
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2025 will go down as a turbulent year for our industry. Major changes, new legislation and geopolitical developments are creating uncertainty on the global market. In this market update we would like to inform you about the most important developments regarding CBAM, anti dumping measures and the impact on our customers.
Developments in Asia
For this update we asked our partners in Asia for their view. All respondents paint the same picture. The international market is highly competitive, with sales prices that so far remain stably low. At the same time underlying costs such as wages energy packaging and transport are increasing.
Several manufacturers report that European demand is lagging behind the United States where sales are back at normal levels. The faltering European industry appears to be the cause of this. On the raw materials side Chinese steel prices have for some time been moving around cost price, partly due to the real estate crisis, lower global demand and the effects of United States tariffs. For the coming period a stable price level is expected.
Freight rates for sea containers remain highly volatile due to political factors and shifting trade flows, which makes forecasting difficult.
Import duties on Chinese products (anti dumping)
The European Union has imposed new definitive anti dumping duties on certain headless screws and steel threaded rods from China. This measure is intended to counter unfair competition and protect European producers.
What does the measure involve
• Definitive anti dumping duties of approximately 55% to 72% depending on the manufacturer
• Application with retroactive effect from March 2025
Impact for Kobout
Kobout has been working for many years with several manufacturers of threaded rods. This enables us to continue to provide quality and competitive pricing.
Alternative suppliers outside China are only available to a limited extent. Quality varies greatly and some suppliers try to circumvent duties via third countries. For our purchasers this means a period of extra diligence and strict checks on origin quality and reliability.
CBAM
CBAM is the sword of Damocles hanging over the European fastener market. From 1 January 2026 importers will have to pay for the CO₂ emissions generated during the production of fasteners. This will have an upward effect on prices.
However the exact calculation methodology has not yet been finally determined. This makes it difficult for both suppliers and customers to assess the precise impact. During 2026 more clarity is expected regarding the actual costs and consequences per product group.
As of this week Kobout is officially registered as a CBAM declarant. This is an important milestone, as it ensures that we can continue importing without interruption in 2026.
Transport from Asia
Due to strikes IT outages strong winds limited crane capacity and structural congestion transport times are increasing to seven to eight weeks. The situation in the port of Rotterdam is extremely challenging. Carriers regularly have to wait three to four hours before a container is released. The number of available drivers continues to decline because many no longer accept the unpredictability and waiting times.
This leads to additional risks of demurrage and detention costs, which by now seem to have become a structural part of the market. We remain in close consultation with our logistics partners to limit delays and to inform customers in good time.
Availability
Due to weakening demand in Europe stocks in the market are relatively high. As a result any shortages can be absorbed quickly. Kobout also currently has ample inventories.
Transport prices in the Netherlands
Domestic transport is becoming more expensive. The causes are
• the introduction of road pricing per kilometre as from July 2026
• further electrification of vehicle fleets
• a wage increase of 6% in the sector
• rising fuel prices
As a result our carriers are forced to implement a price increase. To manage this carefully Kobout will adjust its shipping costs as from 1 January 2026.
Summary
The market remains challenging. Prices are stable, but underlying cost pressure is increasing and logistical uncertainty continues. Import duties make certain product groups significantly more expensive, while CBAM will introduce a new cost component from 2026 whose impact is not yet fully known. The availability of goods is currently good, but reliable transport requires timely planning. We closely monitor all developments and will keep you informed as soon as more clarity is available.